Pair #4415

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19757

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2187

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:32Z

Reasoning: To finish top 10, a player must have made the cut. Finishing top 10 logically necessitates making the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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