Pair #4413

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26261

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2187

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:32Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in a tournament, a player must have made the cut. Finishing top 20 logically necessitates making the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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