Pair #4412

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 106598

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26261

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:32Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall has no logical connection to leading after Round 1. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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