KXNCAAF-27-MICH
Will Michigan win the College Football Playoff National Championship?
Series: KXNCAAF
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2027-01-26T04:00:00Z
Volume: 182139
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
KXNCAAFPLAYOFF-26-MICH
Will Michigan qualify for the College Football Playoffs?
Series: KXNCAAFPLAYOFF
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-12-15T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2823
YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2600
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:49Z
Reasoning: Winning the CFP National Championship requires having qualified for the College Football Playoffs. So winning the championship necessitates playoff qualification, but not vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-29.24%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.2400
Days to maturity:
227
Hurdle yield:
4.32%
Excess yield:
-33.56%
BELOW HURDLE
Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:39:14Z