Pair #4405

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5722

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 106598

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:12Z

Reasoning: Winning a major has no logical connection to leading after Round 1 at the Valero Texas Open, a separate non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.36% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.08% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue