Pair #4404

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5722

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19757

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:12Z

Reasoning: Winning a major has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 at the Valero Texas Open, which is a separate non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -23.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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