Pair #4403

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5745

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26261

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:12Z

Reasoning: Winning a major has no logical bearing on finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open, which is a separate non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -47.09% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -51.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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