Pair #4402

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5722

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1032703

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:12Z

Reasoning: The Valero Texas Open is not a major. Winning a major does not imply winning Valero, and winning Valero does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.33% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.05% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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