Pair #440

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWMARMAD-26-MICH

Will Michigan win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?

Series: KXWMARMAD
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T14:00:00Z
Volume: 138422

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Michigan is the 2025-26 Women's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWMARMADROUND-26R32-MICH

Will Michigan qualify for the women's Round of 32?

Series: KXWMARMADROUND
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-03-22T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3576

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michigan qualifies for the women's College Basketball Round of 32, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:49Z

Reasoning: Winning the national championship requires winning every round including the Round of 32. So the championship implies Round of 32, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:39:46Z

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