Pair #4399

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-HMAT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2499

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-HMAT

Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19757

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:03:12Z

Reasoning: The Valero Texas Open is not a major tournament. Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not imply anything about performance at Valero, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -71.63% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -75.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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