Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-HMAT
Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 19757
YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HMAT
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4591651
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:46Z
Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valero Texas Open — they are separate tournaments.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.8510
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A