Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-HMAT
Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26261
YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HMAT
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4591651
YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:46Z
Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open — they are separate tournaments.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.5910
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A