Pair #439

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWMARMAD-26-MICH

Will Michigan win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?

Series: KXWMARMAD
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T14:00:00Z
Volume: 138422

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michigan is the 2025-26 Women's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWMARMADROUND-26S16-MICH

Will Michigan qualify for the Women's March Madness Sweet Sixteen?

Series: KXWMARMADROUND
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-03-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 735

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.2100
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michigan qualifies for the 2026 Women's March Madness Sweet Sixteen, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:49Z

Reasoning: To win the national championship, Michigan must pass through the Sweet Sixteen. So winning the championship necessitates reaching the Sweet Sixteen. But reaching the Sweet Sixteen does not necessitate winning the championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:39:46Z

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