Pair #4386

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22005

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18644

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:46Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish could be outside the top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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