Pair #4385

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1716955

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 916

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:46Z

Reasoning: To win a golf tournament, a player must make the cut. Winning logically necessitates having made the cut, but making the cut does not necessitate winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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