Pair #438

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWMARMAD-26-MICH

Will Michigan win the Women's College Basketball National Championship?

Series: KXWMARMAD
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-04-05T14:00:00Z
Volume: 138422

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Michigan is the 2025-26 Women's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWMARMADROUND-26F4-MICH

Will Michigan qualify for the Women's March Madness Final Four?

Series: KXWMARMADROUND
Entity: Michigan
Expiration: 2026-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1535

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michigan qualifies for the 2026 Women's March Madness Final Four, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the Women's National Championship requires passing through the Final Four, so the championship win implies Final Four qualification. The reverse is not true — Michigan could reach the Final Four and lose.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:35:38Z

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