Pair #4373

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4724

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18644

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:25Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 has no logical connection to finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open, which is not a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.29% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -70.61% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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