Pair #4372

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4724

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1716955

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:07Z

Reasoning: The Valero Texas Open is not a major tournament. Winning a major does not imply winning the Valero Texas Open, and winning the Valero Texas Open does not imply winning a major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -5.23% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -9.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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