Pair #4367

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18644

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.8100

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Rules

If Tony Finau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1385475

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:07Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters says nothing about Finau's performance at the Valero Texas Open, a separate tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4410
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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