Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SSCH
Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 461303
YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SSCH
Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 257606
YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:07Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Masters necessarily means finishing top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — finishing 6th-10th satisfies A but not B.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A