Pair #4364

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 461303

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 257606

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:07Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Masters necessarily means finishing top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — finishing 6th-10th satisfies A but not B.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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