Pair #4361

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 461303

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:02:07Z

Reasoning: A requires top 10 in ALL 4 majors including the Masters, but top 10 at Masters does not require top 5. B (top 5 at Masters) does not imply A (could miss top 10 at other majors). A does not imply B (top 10 at Masters satisfies A's Masters requirement without needing top 5). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -78.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2700
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -83.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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