Pair #436

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMARMAD-26-WIS

Will Wisconsin win the College Basketball National Championship?

Series: KXMARMAD
Entity: Wisconsin
Expiration: 2026-04-07T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3194900

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wisconsin is the 2025-26 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMARMADROUND-26E8-WIS

Will Wisconsin qualify for the Men's March Madness Elite Eight?

Series: KXMARMADROUND
Entity: Wisconsin
Expiration: 2026-03-28T14:00:00Z
Volume: 24159

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wisconsin qualifies for the 2026 Men's March Madness Elite Eight, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:31Z

Reasoning: To win the National Championship, Wisconsin must have advanced through the Elite Eight. Winning the championship logically necessitates qualifying for the Elite Eight. The reverse is not true.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:32:15Z

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