Pair #4357

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10393

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 299988

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 could be any of four majors (Masters, PGA Championship, US Open, The Open). Winning a non-Masters major does not require finishing top 20 at the Masters. And finishing top 20 at the Masters does not require winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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