Pair #4356

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 13758916

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 299988

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is definitionally within the top 20. So if Reed wins, he must finish top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8820
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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