Pair #4354

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-AZVE

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 3434

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-AZEV

Will Alexander Zverev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31714

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Jun 30 does not require winning a Grand Slam. Winning a Grand Slam does not guarantee being #1 on Jun 30. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.39% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: 29
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -103.61% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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