Pair #4352

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 3337

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 60556

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Dec 31 does not require winning a Grand Slam (could accumulate points without a slam win). Winning a Grand Slam does not guarantee being #1 on Dec 31. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -63.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -68.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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