Pair #4351

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26DEC31-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Dec 31, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T17:00:00Z
Volume: 3337

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 24613

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on Dec 31 does not require being #1 on Jun 30 (rankings change throughout the year). Being #1 on Jun 30 does not require being #1 on Dec 31. These are snapshots at different points in time with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -69.25% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -73.53% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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