Pair #4348

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-MKEY

Will Madison Keys win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1372

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Madison Keys wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR01KEYVEK-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the Keys vs Vekic : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-04-01T18:00:00Z
Volume: 7898

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Madison Keys wins the Keys vs Vekic professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:15Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 and winning a Round of 32 match at WTA Charleston are in separate tournaments. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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