Pair #4346

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG

Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3691

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR31PEGPUT-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Pegula vs Putintseva : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z
Volume: 9097

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins the Pegula vs Putintseva professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:15Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 and winning a Round of 32 match at WTA Charleston are in separate tournaments. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.61% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8000
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -69.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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