Antecedent (if this happens)
KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG
Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3691
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXWTAMATCH-26MAR31PEGPUT-PEG
Will Jessica Pegula win the Pegula vs Putintseva : Round Of 32 match?
Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-31T18:00:00Z
Volume: 9097
YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jessica Pegula wins the Pegula vs Putintseva professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:15Z
Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 and winning a Round of 32 match at WTA Charleston are in separate tournaments. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-65.61%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.8000
Days to maturity:
201
Hurdle yield:
4.31%
Excess yield:
-69.92%
BELOW HURDLE