Pair #4344

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-WSIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 578

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-WSIM

Will Webb Simpson win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1776

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:15Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not necessarily require finishing top 10 in Round 1 — a player could have a poor first round and still win overall (though unlikely, there is no rule requiring it). And finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue