Pair #4343

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-WSIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 578

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-WSIM

Webb Simpson to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup

Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 601

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Webb Simpson is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:15Z

Reasoning: Being named Ryder Cup captain has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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