Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-WSIM
Valero Texas Open: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 578
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Webb Simpson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN-2027USA-WSIM
Webb Simpson to be the U.S. Team Captain at 2027 Ryder Cup
Series: KXRYDERCUPCAPTAIN
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2027-09-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 601
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Webb Simpson is the U.S. Team Captain at the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:01:15Z
Reasoning: Being named Ryder Cup captain has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open, and vice versa. These are independent events.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A