Pair #433

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMARMAD-26-WIS

Will Wisconsin win the College Basketball National Championship?

Series: KXMARMAD
Entity: Wisconsin
Expiration: 2026-04-07T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3194900

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Wisconsin is the 2025-26 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMARMADROUND-26T2-WIS

Will Wisconsin qualify for the Men's March Madness Championship Game?

Series: KXMARMADROUND
Entity: Wisconsin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T14:00:00Z
Volume: 7140

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Wisconsin qualifies for the 2026 Men's March Madness Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:31Z

Reasoning: To win the National Championship, Wisconsin must play in the Championship Game. Winning the championship logically necessitates having qualified for the Championship Game. The reverse is not true (they could lose the championship game).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:43:45Z

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