Pair #4313

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-BOS

Will Boston Bruins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Boston Bruins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1735152

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Boston Bruins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-BOS

Will the Boston Bruins win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Boston Bruins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 9853

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Boston Bruins wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals does not require having the best regular season record (President's Trophy), and winning the President's Trophy does not require winning the Stanley Cup Finals. These are independent achievements.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

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