Pair #4311

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SPOW

Will Seamus Power lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Seamus Power
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 548

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Seamus Power is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SPOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Seamus Power finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Seamus Power
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 415

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Seamus Power finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:18:14Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (a player could collapse in subsequent rounds), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue