Pair #431

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOWOMEN-26-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the WTA Miami Open?

Series: KXMOWOMEN
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z
Volume: 150218

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the 2026 WTA Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ASAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11887

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:31Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not imply winning the Miami Open, and winning the Miami Open does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No logical dependency exists.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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