Pair #4309

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SPOW

Will Seamus Power lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Seamus Power
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 548

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Seamus Power is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SPOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Seamus Power finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Seamus Power
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 777

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Seamus Power finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:18:14Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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