Pair #4306

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MKUC

Will Matt Kuchar lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Kuchar
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 379

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Kuchar is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-MKUC

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matt Kuchar finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Kuchar
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 266

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Kuchar finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:18:14Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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