Pair #430

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 331372

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOWOMEN-26-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the WTA Miami Open?

Series: KXMOWOMEN
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z
Volume: 150218

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the 2026 WTA Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:31Z

Reasoning: The French Open and the WTA Miami Open are separate tournaments. Winning one does not necessitate winning the other in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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