Pair #427

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLATLANTIC-26-MTL

Will Montreal Canadiens win the NHL Atlantic Division?

Series: KXNHLATLANTIC
Entity: Montreal Canadiens
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 31784

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025-2026 NHL Atlantic Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLEAST-26-MTL

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Montreal Canadiens
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1035949

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Montreal Canadiens wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals does not require winning the Atlantic Division (a wild card or non-division-winner can reach the ECF). And winning the Atlantic Division does not imply winning the Eastern Conference Finals. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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