Pair #425

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLHART-26-CMCD

Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?

Series: KXNHLHART
Entity: Connor McDavid
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 272789

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Connor McDavid wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLROSS-26-CMCD

Who will win Art Ross Trophy?

Series: KXNHLROSS
Entity: Connor McDavid
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 52607

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Connor McDavid wins the NHL Art Ross Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:15Z

Reasoning: Winning the Hart Trophy does not require winning the Art Ross Trophy, and vice versa. These are independent awards.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.33% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -102.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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