Pair #4244

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-JVAN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will John VanDerLaan finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: John VanDerLaan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 573

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If John VanDerLaan finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JVAN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will John VanDerLaan finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John VanDerLaan
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4418

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If John VanDerLaan finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:16:57Z

Reasoning: If VanDerLaan finishes in the top 10, he necessarily also finishes in the top 20. The reverse does not hold — a top-20 finish does not guarantee a top-10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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