Pair #420

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLHART-26-MCEL

Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?

Series: KXNHLHART
Entity: Macklin Celebrini
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 417014

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Macklin Celebrini wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLRICHARD-26-MCEL

Who will win Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy?

Series: KXNHLRICHARD
Entity: Macklin Celebrini
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 435

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Macklin Celebrini wins the NHL Maurice "Rocket" Richard Award in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:15Z

Reasoning: Winning the Hart Trophy does not require winning the Richard Trophy, and vice versa. These are independent awards.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.77% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 29
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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