Pair #4186

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-PWAR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Paul Waring finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Paul Waring
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5863

YES ask: 0.4100
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Paul Waring finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-PWAR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Paul Waring make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Paul Waring
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 7443

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Paul Waring has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:16:04Z

Reasoning: If Paul Waring finishes top 10, he must have made the cut. However, making the cut does not imply a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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