Pair #4185

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-PWAR

Will Paul Waring lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Paul Waring
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 841

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Paul Waring is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-PWAR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Paul Waring finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Paul Waring
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5863

YES ask: 0.4100
NO ask: 0.6300
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Paul Waring finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:15:48Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 10, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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