Pair #4184

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-PWAR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Paul Waring make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Paul Waring
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 7443

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Paul Waring has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-PWAR

Will Paul Waring lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Paul Waring
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 841

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Paul Waring is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:15:48Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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