Pair #4180

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ZBAU

Will Zachary Bauchou lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Zachary Bauchou
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7012

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zachary Bauchou is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ZBAU

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Zachary Bauchou finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Zachary Bauchou
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 595

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zachary Bauchou finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:15:48Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20 (could miss cut or fall back), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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