Pair #418

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLHART-26-QHUG

Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?

Series: KXNHLHART
Entity: Quinn Hughes
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 7210

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Quinn Hughes wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLNORRIS-26-QHUG

Who will win James Norris Memorial Trophy?

Series: KXNHLNORRIS
Entity: Quinn Hughes
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 15791

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Quinn Hughes wins the NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:09:15Z

Reasoning: Winning the Hart Trophy (league MVP) does not require winning the Norris Trophy (best defenseman), and winning the Norris does not require winning the Hart. They are separate awards with different criteria, though a dominant defenseman could win both.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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