Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-ASCH
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Schenk finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 200
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Schenk finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR2LEAD-TECHO26-ASCH
Will Adam Schenk lead at the end of Round 2 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Adam Schenk
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1210
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Schenk is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:15:31Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply leading after Round 2, and leading after Round 2 does not imply finishing top 10 in Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.9900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A