Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-ASVE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Svensson make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Adam Svensson
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 16286
YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.3400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Svensson has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ASVE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Svensson finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Svensson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3307
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Svensson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:15:31Z
Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish (many players make the cut but finish outside top 20). Finishing top 20 implies making the cut, but the rules here ask about the reverse. Actually, top-20 finish DOES imply making the cut — but making the cut does NOT imply top 20. So the implication goes: top-20 finish → made cut. However, Event A is the make-cut market and Event B is the top-20 market, so B implies A (not A implies B). Let me re-evaluate: antecedent = KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ASVE, consequent = KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-ASVE.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.8000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A