Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-ASVE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Svensson finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Adam Svensson
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1031
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Svensson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ASVE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Svensson finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Svensson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3307
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adam Svensson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:15:31Z
Reasoning: A top-10 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top-20 tournament finish (player could play poorly in subsequent rounds). A top-20 tournament finish does not require a top-10 Round 1 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A