Pair #4168

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-ASVE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Svensson finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Adam Svensson
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1031

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Svensson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ASVE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Svensson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Svensson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3307

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Svensson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-26T08:15:31Z

Reasoning: A top-10 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top-20 tournament finish (player could play poorly in subsequent rounds). A top-20 tournament finish does not require a top-10 Round 1 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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